A lot of people are wondering why Iowa is going R after going D in every election since 1984 except one (2004). What changed? Although this model is far from perfect, I found it insightful to the situation of Iowa. Basically the trends of demographic support can explain a lot. Trump is obviously not performing as well among people of color and college educated whites, and he’s overperforming with non-college educated whites. Given that, if we assume some people of color and college educated whites who voted Republican in 2012 will vote Democrat in 2016 and some non-college educated whites who voted Democrat will vote Trump, then the map here shows how voting patterns would shift. As you can see, Iowa turns a lot more red.
This is all based on a hypothetical, but I’ve been searching for an explanation of what has happened to my home state, and this was one of the more useful exercises to shed light on that question.
via Facebook http://ift.tt/2e0ZcqK