Where Do Clinton and Trump Have the Most Upside?

A lot of people are wondering why Iowa is going R after going D in every election since 1984 except one (2004). What changed? Although this model is far from perfect, I found it insightful to the situation of Iowa. Basically the trends of demographic support can explain a lot. Trump is obviously not performing as well among people of color and college educated whites, and he’s overperforming with non-college educated whites. Given that, if we assume some people of color and college educated whites who voted Republican in 2012 will vote Democrat in 2016 and some non-college educated whites who voted Democrat will vote Trump, then the map here shows how voting patterns would shift. As you can see, Iowa turns a lot more red.

This is all based on a hypothetical, but I’ve been searching for an explanation of what has happened to my home state, and this was one of the more useful exercises to shed light on that question.

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